2000/2003
		Contents Vision Estimate of need in Birmingham Aim: National and Birmingham Aspirations Scale and range of provision 3 Year Objectives Monitoring and co-ordination Annual Operating Plan Action Plan Push Forward Evaluation Framework

	Aim: National and Birmingham aspirations
	The aim in Birmingham is to reduce the overall number of adults below level 1 by 50% by 2010, with an interim target of a 25% reduction by 2005. In order to do this not only must substantially more adults have their basic skills needs assessed and be engaged in opportunities to address their assessed needs, but there needs to be dramatic increase in the numbers achieving level 1. This will require attention to retention rates and to issues around achievement. The first beneficiaries of the primary school National Literacy Strategy will not leave secondary school until 2007. The adult figures from the table above suggest that the targets can be met by lifting 7,072 adults per year above the threshold. However, because the pool of need will continue to be swollen by school leavers (at least for the next 3 years) the real number of basic skills achievers needs to be >10,000 per year. The task then becomes clear. It is equivalent to taking all the adult learners currently having basic skills support by any means, assisting all of these to succeed (i.e. “emptying” all current provision) within the next year; recruiting and succeeding with the same numbers – year on year for 10 years: a massive undertaking, and one that will require substantial new approaches to complement existing programmes.